Which player is hot for FPL......?

It’s really great the Fantasy Premier League is back, but it is important to know who to buy. As usual, we have produced a FPL hot list of players to consider.

However, this season we have also made calculations of 15/16 points for the players who have come into the Premiership. For example, if Zlatan Ibrahimvic scored his 38 goals and provided 13 assists in 31 appearances for Manchester United and not Paris Saint-Germain, he would have picked up in the region of 270 points, with bonus points included. That is a massive return and justifies his £11.5m price tag.

I have not accounted for league's difficulty, so when you read that Ahmed Musa, the new Leicester City signing, it would have earned 135 points over 30 games, well you will also have to consider that was in the Russian League.

What is hot?

For me, at this stage of the pre-season, I think a player is hot if, firstly, they are earning good points off good game time last season, and they are not over-priced this season. From this list, I think a player is very hot if they also have good fixtures.

Finally, yet most importantly, a player is white hot if they are on the final shortlist and they have a cracking pre-season.

Obliviously, as the FPL began yesterday, we cannot yet know what will happen in this present pre-season.

Who is Hot in 2016/17?

Well, interestingly, Ibrahimovic is only just hot. This reflects the usual price premium on strikers but we usually have a captain who a forward, so in fairness we should double the points the forward earns. On this basis, the Swedish forward is the hottest player in the Premiership in 2016.

However, I want FPL managers to keep in mind the above warning about league difficulty, and read this excellent article from Stats Bomb on the impact of a player’s age on their goal count (the total number of goals tends to decline after 26, if you do not want to read it).

As you might expect, the value sits in our defences. The top four players by their values or Point per Million per Game (PPMPG) are Cech, Gomes, Myhill and Butland. Therefore, I guess this reflects how infrequently we should change these players.

Ayew is the only midfielder on the Hot List this season. However, if we look at the Player Rotation Checker, and filter it on Midfielders who played 20 games or more, we can see Mahrez, Mkhitaryan, Ozil, Ayew, Payet, and Eriksen only just missed the 0.75ppmpg cut off point, but there suggestion that the players are still good candidates for our teams.

The article is just a cursory look at stats and if you’re not satisfied with this, please tell us your hot players and why.

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